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In fact, at current rates, the Catholics will be a majority after 2016. Catholic majority in Northern Ireland to present dilemma for Britain and Republic. There are also small Hindu, Sikh, Muslim, Buddhist a Party colleague Christopher Stalford said while Ms Foster's views were "reflective of a lot of unionists ( who) feel they would effectively be pushed into the Irish sea", he would not be among any exodus. Nolan points out that a Catholic majority does not necessarily mean that all will support a united Ireland. According to Paul Nolan, an academic and … CATHOLICS could outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland by 2021, a leading academic has suggested. During the political violence of the last third of the 20th century, many Protestants moved away from western and border areas of Northern Ireland. More recent numbers show a Catholic majority … Northern Ireland The solution to the original pre-1922 Irish problem, and the modern Northern Ireland problem, and almost every conflict in the world, is the same: Every country should tolerate diversity. © Copyright 2020 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. The Union Jack, the Irish tricolor and the EU flag flying above Stromont, in Northern Ireland. The World. The results of next year's census - which coincides with the centenary of Northern Ireland - could add to the confusion of how any potential border poll … "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority," he said. Roughly equal proportions of Roman Catholics and Protestants live in Belfast and County Armagh. "I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. Now, however, Catholic schoolchildren … The 2011 official census figures put the Protestant population at 48 per cent and Catholics at 45 per cent, while more recent figures from 2016 show 44 per cent of working age adults are Catholic and 40 per cent Protestant. Thus, in 1922 Northern Ireland began functioning as a self-governing region of the United Kingdom. This blog is not a proper statistical study, a full analysis would use far more detailed data and sophisticated analysis with a package like SPSS. According to Paul Nolan, an academic and independent researcher known for the three Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Reports, Catholics will outnumber Protestants in only a few years. It is projected that by 2021 there will be more Catholics (51%) than Protestants (37%) in Northern Ireland. Many people in Northern Ireland are descendants of the original population of this region and are also Catholics. On my recent blog on the Lord Ashcroft poll I made a statement that there were now almostcertainly more Cultural Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland. CATHOLICS could outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland by 2021, a leading academic has suggested. The population of Northern Ireland, which has been predominantly Protestant since the state's founding in 1921, will likely be dominated by Catholics in three years, according to a new census, reported the Catholic News Agency on April 23. One in Belfast and one in Dublin? The 2011 official census showed a 48 percent Protestant population, just ahead of Catholics at 45 percent Catholic. "We need to show that you can be British and Irish at the same time.". 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Northern Ireland was created in 1921, when Ireland was partitioned between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland by the Government of Ireland Act 1920.Unlike Southern Ireland, which would become the Irish Free State in 1922, the majority of Northern Ireland's population were unionists, who wanted to remain within the United Kingdom. A century later it … Read More: More Protestants now going to church than Catholics as numbers drop. There have been a number of queries, on Twitter, questioning whether this is true. According to the 2011 Census, out of 1.8 million inhabitants, 40.76 per cent stated their religion as Roman Catholics, 19.06 per cent as Presbyterians, 13.74 per cent as Church of Ireland, 3 per cent as Methodists, 5.76 per cent were from other primarily Protestant denominations, 0.82 per cent other religions, 10.11 per cent no religions and 6.75 per cent did not state any religion. In Northern Ireland, the two-thirds Protestant majority saw the Catholic minority as a threat and had consolidated political power to the point that Catholics in the north no longer had an effective voice. "For my part though, I would never leave this island," he said. “The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing – and I mean unionism with a small ‘u’ – it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital ‘U’,” he said. Picture by Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire, John 'Jobby' Crossan - the Derry-born footballer they couldn't ban, Paediatrician uses painting talent to capture 'Covid warrior' in prestigious art exhibition, Brandon Lewis faces calls to apologise to Troubles victims, On Trend: Five of the best beauty crackers, Ask Fiona: I'm struggling with debt and miss my daughter, Buying a business - the factors you must consider. Paul Nolan, an independent researcher, best known for the three Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Reports, told BBC News NI it is likely that by the centenary of the foundation of the state Catholics will outnumber Protestants. Of course, it would be false to equate that with support for a united Ireland, and two events may well have more impact. "I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. When British negotiators carved Northern Ireland from the newly independent south it was 65% Protestant, 35% Catholic, entrenching a unionist majority. "In other words people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that's a sizeable proportion of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists.". A financial letter from Santa (with a nod to Elf and Safety) . Among schoolchildren, 51 per cent are Catholic and 37 per cent Protestant, while among the over 60s the proportion is reversed, with 57 per cent Protestant and 35 per cent Catholic. According to the last census in 2011, Protestants outnumbered Catholics in Northern Ireland by just three percent. Also the fact Catholic families are having more children than Protestant ones. . “Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority,” he told BBC News NI. TheJournal.ie supports the work of the Press Council of Ireland and the Office of the Press Ombudsman, and our staff operate within the Code of Practice. The British and Irish governments and the people of Northern Ireland are facing the prospect – and sooner than most people might think – of how to manage a transformed constitutional situation where the majority in the North are likely to be from a Catholic background. He said there is no need for this prediction to cause undue alarm among unionists as being a Catholic does not necessarily mean supporting a united Ireland. Northern Ireland’s mainly Protestant pro-British majority and the Catholic minority, which traditionally favored reuniting with the Republic of Ireland… The fragile peace established by the Good Friday Agreement could fall apart. Its not going to go just in one direction," the academic said. A report this week by the Catholic News Agency suggests that according to census data, Protestants outnumbered Catholics by just three percent in 2011, while more recent data show a Catholic majority “in every age group of the population, except for those over 60.”. He suggested it is likely debate on a future United Ireland would move to whether it might mean "two parliaments - one in Belfast and one in Dublin". The Catholic Church has seen a small growth in adherents, while the other Christian groups have seen a small decrease. Mr Nolan pointed out that although 45 per cent identified in the 2011 census as being from a Catholic background, only 25 per cent claimed an exclusively Irish identity. "The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing - and I mean unionism with a small 'u' - it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital 'U'," he said. This has the potential to significantly destabilize Northern Irish politics. © Copyright 2020 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. Figures from 2016 showed 44 percent of working age adults are Catholic while 40 percent are Protestant, and among the over 60s demographic 57 percent are Protestant and only 35 percent are Catholic. Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald said unionists "have to be at home in a new Ireland" and nothing, from the flag to the anthem would be "taboo". Among schoolchildren, Catholics are at 51 percent compared to 37 percent Protestant. The Catholic-Protestant ratio is import… It also allowed Northern Ireland the option of remaining outside of the Free State, which it unsurprisingly chose to do. Founded in 1921, Northern Ireland has always had a Protestant majority. Protestants were t… Many Catholics in the region have been worried that Brexit will involve a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which would undermine the Good Friday Agreement. It is likely Catholics will outnumber Protestants by 2021 in Northern Ireland, according to a leading academic. His analysis comes after DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would "probably" leave in the event of a united Ireland. Last year, a leading academic predicted that Catholics could outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland as soon as 2021. "Three years from now we will end up, I … In Northern Ireland, Brexit is once again raising difficult questions of identity: Catholic vs. Protestant, Irish vs. British, nationalist vs. unionist. 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